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The NBU is making money: why the regulator cut the key policy rate to 14.5% and how it will affect the economy

The National Bank has recently cut its key policy rate from 15% to 14.5%. The previous rate cut took place back in December last year, preceded by several rounds of cuts over the course of six months. Artem Shcherbyna, Chief Investment Officer at Capital Times, explains why the NBU took this step again after maintaining the discount rate at 15% in January 2024, how it will affect the Ukrainian economy, and whether we should expect similar steps from the regulator in the near future.

Ukrainian economy could return to pre-war levels not earlier than in 2026

According to our core scenario* nominal GDP of Ukraine is estimated as $145 bn (muсh lower from $200 bn in 2021) and the real GDP could decrease by 34% in 2022. Looking forward, the Ukrainian economy will be developing between $130-160 bn in 2023-2024 and recieving great amounts of financial support from external funds for budget finacing and infrastructure reconstruction.

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