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What to expect from investments in Ukraine and worldwide in the coming years

During the Invest Talk Summit-2024, held in Kyiv on May 18, Artem Shcherbina, the Investment Director at Capital Times, shared insights on what to expect from investments in Ukraine and worldwide in the coming years.

The first and most straightforward option for many Ukrainians is real estate. Those who invested in real estate in western Ukraine before or even during the war are doing well. The price per square meter in these regions is increasing.

Kyiv. In Kyiv, we observe that the price per square meter has recovered, but we can’t say it’s a stable growth. Those who invested before the war can now sell at about 10% more than their initial investment. The real estate market in Kyiv has restructured. There are almost no new high-rise buildings being constructed, or they are being completed without new projects starting. Developers have shifted to a different segment. The most active asset in Kyiv’s real estate market is “smart” apartments: small units up to 30 square meters near metro stations. These are liquid assets, allowing for profitable buy-sell transactions.

We previously struggled to get people to understand this instrument. Now, due to war bonds and the government’s extensive promotion, many have invested in them. The yield over the entire period reached around 20%. Previously, bonds could yield about 16% in hryvnia. Now, there’s complete stability. It’s a fixed-income instrument. This unique feature in Ukraine differs from global markets, where bond prices fluctuate; here, they remain stable.

This is the third type of asset where supply exceeds demand, affecting price growth. However, according to kupypai, regions like Vinnytsia, Poltava, and Volyn cover the devaluation for those who invested there. Other regions haven’t covered the devaluation. So, only three regions, on average, covered the devaluation through transactions. Nonetheless, the hryvnia dynamics here are positive. Land is the most interesting from a potential perspective. When the war ends, investments will flow in. Even in a three-year horizon, substantial gains are possible. It’s the only asset class more interesting long-term than short-term.

Over the last 12 months, the S&P index has increased. Markets are growing. We are at war, yet they are doing well. The US provides us with $60 billion, while $50 billion flows into the American economy. The average Ukrainian is outside this growth due to currency restrictions. Financial literacy is growing in Ukraine, partly due to the promotion of bonds. However, overall, Ukrainians can’t legally invest much capital abroad.

Gold has also performed well for two consecutive years, along with corporate bonds.

Capital Times’ view on investment models to expect in Ukraine and worldwide for the next three years:

Source: Finance.ua

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