The next year will be a period of depression for Ukrainian economy. Ukrainian government does not predict the growth for the simple reason: they don't expect instant therapeutic effect from the reforms or even do not believe in their implementation.
Erik Nayman, financial analyst and managing partner of Capital Times, has expressed such an opinion in "Fixing mistakes" on CapitalTV (project of business observer "Capital").
"Why does the positive forecast is so small? The answer is that the 2% growth of the economy after a shocking drop cannot called "growth" at all. 2016Y is the year of depression. We can see it in both optimistic and pessimistic forecasts made by the government. It's not a growth forecast, it's a fiction. They have confessed that they don't expect any effect from reforms", said Erik Nayman.
In experts opinion international creditors shouldn't agree on Ukrainian government 40% haircut proposal on external debt since such a way will get nowhere.
"Creditors should realize that despite they could accept the 40% haircut proposal, Ukraine will fall in depression any way. In 2017 Ukraine will face another depression and so on. It's like giving another bottle to an alcoholic and expecting him to get better. In this case we talk about another bottle keeping in mind another money tranche", Nayman explaining.
"In 2018 Ukraine will come to that creditors asking them for another 40% haircut. This proposal could cut creditors initial investments for more than a half. That the reason why creditors don't want to agree on current proposal because they want to save more money now, not to lose more in the future. And if Ukraine could blossom out till 2018 then we will see new foreign investments, adopted reforms and everything will be OK", said the expert.